Treloar, Goldstein, Shaw - Trade or Hold?


Written by Bryce Whitney (@AFLBryce) on 19 April 2017   

The certain things of the SuperCoach are sometimes not so certain. Adam Treloar, Todd Goldstein, and Heath Shaw have started the season a shadow of their former selves.

Why is this happening? Should we trade them or hold them? Let's take an in-depth look at each player.

Adam Treloar

Price: $562,200 (Down $43.2K)
Average: 96.0
Breakeven: 149
Ownership: 24%

A lot of SuperCoaches have been considering trading our Treloar this week based on his lowly recent score of 72. Basing a selection of a player on their previous averages when entering a season can give you an overview of the output a player has on a season-long basis, but doesn’t tell an accurate picture of how the player performs round-to-round. This is something coaches need to breakdown if they want an explanation as to why their player isn’t playing to their average or improving on it.

Below are some examples of a lower-than-average output from Treloar:

2014 – Round 14 to 18: Averaged 89.0 points over four games. He completed the season with an average of 107.5.

2015 – Round 2 to 6: Averaged 89.4 points over five games. He completed the season with an average of 106.8.

2016 – Round 11 to 16: Averaged 89.6 points over five games. He went on to average 122 from Round 17 for the last seven rounds of the season and completed the season with a career-high average of 111.3.

As you’ll see from the statistics above, Treloar often has a down patch in his seasons; it just happens that his down patch is at the beginning of his season.

Verdict: Hold.

Todd Goldstein

Price: $547,500 (Down $47.5K)
Average: 84.3
Breakeven: 173
Ownership: 7%

Set-and-forget was the way many people thought the Gawnstein combo would work out this season. It has been very, very far from that. Having already used a trade on Gawn, thousands of SuperCoaches were left pondering whether or not they should be using one on Goldstein too. The biggest downfall of Goldstein’s scoring has been the emergence of Braydon Preuss. The dreaded second ruckman that destroyed Stefan Martin’s output last season. Something we can look at below is how Goldstein is impacted by Preuss.

Player Round Main Ruck? Hitouts Score Result
Goldstein 1 Yes 32 105 Loss
Preuss 1 No 19 44 Loss
           
Goldstein 2 DNP DNP DNP Loss
Preuss 2 Yes 46 111 Loss
           
Goldstein 3 No 10 52 Loss
Preuss 3 Yes 26 87 Loss
           
Goldstein 4 Yes 29 96 Loss 
Preuss 4 No  17  60 Loss 

As you'll see from the table above, when Goldstein is the number one ruck he scores well. Last year he went unbridled in the ruck without much competition. Majak Daw played eight games for the Roo's but didn't have an outlasting impact on Goldstein's scoring.

Should you keep Goldstein? This question is dependent on what you are trying to achieve in SuperCoach.

Are you ranked in the Top 10k and have a strong ruck department? Keep him, save the trade.

Are you struggling in the middle or bottom of the ranks and need to take a risk to get higher up? Move him to Stefan Martin.

Heath Shaw

Price: $499,400 (Down $77.1K)
Average: 84.8
Breakeven: 124
Ownership: 37%

Heater is another prime example of a player that should’ve been a lock as one of the Top-5 players for their respective positions. Statistically, Shaw has struggled this season, dropping in a few important categories:

  • Disposals from 24.1 to 18.5
  • Marking from 7.6 to 5.0
  • Rebound-50’s from 7.8 to 5.8
  • Inside-50’s from 1.6 to 0.5
  • SuperCoach scoring from 106 to 84.8

These stats are a worry for the 37% of coaches that started with Heath Shaw. Many started with him over the likes of Docherty, Laird or Adams as they’re in the same price bracket.

Like Treloar, Shaw started last season slowly. He began with scores of 87, 74, 129, and 70 in his first four games, which had SuperCoaches trading him out as his price dropped and his average was 90, and not 110 as expected. At the start of 2016, the thing that let Heath Shaw down was his efficiency, as he was still getting his average amount of disposals and marks. Once his effectiveness had returned to his average his scoring increased, and he was the player SuperCoaches thought they'd selected.

The problem with Heath Shaw in 2017 is that it’s not his efficiency, it's statistical decreases on his vital stats like disposals and marks. After his first round score of 118, Shaw has only managed to score 53, 89 and 79. In these games, he has gone at 80% efficiency.

Verdict: Trade. Too much cash and points are being lost on Shaw right now, and if you can manage to bring in Laird, Docherty, or Adams, you should make a move.

Final Thoughts

Decisions on whether to trade or keep your players should ultimately come down to how your team is performing at the moment. Ask yourself if you should be aggressive in trading a player if you're down in the rankings or not winning match-ups. If your team has been performing in all other areas, a trade can help more than it will now towards the tail-end of the season.


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