Moneyball Bargain Buys for Round 4


Written by Darren Church (@DC_0_happy) on 14 April 2017   

Easter weekend is upon us friends, and it’s time to find some delicious Moneyball Easter Eggs amongst all those other home brand eggs. It is the time when most players have played 3 games and now their Moneyball prices become adjusted to their current scoring, which makes finding those bargains even more difficult. Let’s see what we can find this week.

Each week I will be highlighting some of the DFS Bargain Buys at each position that are underpriced and could be the difference between you making cash or making up the numbers in your weekend DFS competitions.

Without further ado here are your DFS Bargain Buys of Round 4 to keep in mind when setting your lineups and please remember to gamble responsibly.

Defenders

Christian Salem (DEF) - $6,800

It looks like Demon players will be a constant theme this year due to their high possession brand of footy, which translates beautifully to MB scores. Salem is no exception with scores of 83, 127, and 90 over the first three weeks playing off the half back. He’s averaging 25 disposals, 19 kicks, 7 marks, 2.3 tackles and 100 MB points per game. A great option if your looking to spend slightly less on defense options this week.

Tom Williamson (DEF) - $3,500

We are very limited with minimum price options to build our lineups with this week, however, Williamson could be one saving grace. He played very well in his debut against the Bombers last week in the torrential rain. He scored 67 MB points off the back of 15 disposals, 9 kicks, 2 marks, and 5 tackles. Williamson was Carlton's #61 pick in last year’s draft and has kept his spot for the game against the Gold Coast, which will be dry under the roof at Etihad.

Midfielders

David Swallow (MID) - $6,600

Wow, what a great last couple of weeks from the player that I, along with many others thought was made from glass (he breaks so often!). He has produced scores of 89 and 120 off the back of averages of 27.5 disposals, 14.5 kicks, 4 marks and 5.5 tackles.  After playing only 6 games over the last two seasons, including none last year, Swallow looks like he has his body right and poised for a productive year. He won’t stay at this discounted price for long, so capitalize this week when they play the Blues.

Clayton Oliver (MID) - $7,500

I’m not usually a fan of doubling up on suggestions in consecutive weeks but Clayton Oliver has only had his price adjusted up by $1,000, which means he is a sure lineup lock at his current production and simply can’t be ignored.
With averages of 33 disposals, 9.3 kicks, 5.7 marks, 8 tackles, and 122.7MB over the first three games, Oliver is a top 6 midfielder on average and should be priced in the $9,500 range. With Jordan Lewis rubbed out for a few games, look for Oliver to continue his stellar start to the season. A lock in my eyes as you are currently getting Dangerfield production for $3,000 less.

Rucks

Jake Spencer (RU) - $4,700

With our favorite hairy-man Maxxy Gawn going down with a serious 12-week hamstring injury against the Cats last week. The door has opened for another hairy-man Jake Spencer to move into the number one ruck at Melbourne for the next 3 months. He has only played 36 career games over the course of 7 years for the Demons and now has his chance at a consistent run. In the JLT series, Spencer scored 56, 32, and 71 MB points rucking alongside Gawn. To help get a better indication of Spencer’s scoring ability you need to go way back to rounds 7-9 of the 2015 season to find some relevant statistics where Spencer rucked by himself. In those three rounds, he scored 69, 105, and 95 MB points off the back of averages of 9 disposals, 4 kicks, 1 mark, 7 tackles and 33 hit outs. He will need to bring his best against Sandilands this weekend.

Forwards

Charlie Cameron (FWD) - $6,600

Charlie has been unleashed in the midfield this year and his speed and agility is just what the Crows have needed in there. His first three weeks have seen scores of 112, 95, and 69, for an average score of 92 MB points. If we look at his stats he is averaging 18.6 disposals, 12.3 kicks, 3.3 marks, 7 tackles (currently 12th in the league for tackles per contest), and a goal.  Yes, his scores have been trending down slightly since round 1 but don’t be fooled, look for Charlie to come out firing at home against the Bombers on Saturday night. Through the first three weeks, Charlie has eclipsed career highs in disposals, kicks, and tackles per game, there’s not much value in the forwards this weekend so make sure he is in your lineup if you want to save a little at this position.

Jamie Elliott (FWD) - $5,100

Assuming that Elliott makes the final cut for Sunday’s contest against the Saints, I find him an intriguing dart throw play in your lineups. He is coming back from a long layoff with injuries and has not played AFL since round 23 of 2015, so some caution is needed as he most likely will take a game or two to get back to game speed. However, as many may have forgotten, his last 5 MB scores of 2015 were exceptional with 96, 122, 84, 77, and 79. So if you are looking for value in the forwards when building your lineup, Elliot could be that smoky in the Guaranteed Price Pools that will see you taking home the $$$$.

Good luck with your lineups this weekend.

Note: All pricing and points based on Moneyball.com.au


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